![]() ![]() The most likely track area of the center. The areaĮxperiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at leastħ4 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds ofģ9-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing ![]() TheirĮffects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. The cone is then formedīy smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles. Previous five years official forecast errors. Where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the Toįorm the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along theįorecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, Indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropicalĬyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. Stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. The track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the Uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid whiteĪnd stippled white areas in the graphic. NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH ![]() H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time:ĭ: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH Then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. Tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the centerĪt the times indicated. The orange circle indicates the current position of theĬenter of the tropical cyclone. Tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), ![]() How to use the cone graphic (video): About this product: Not sure where to begin? Click to see all topics in JetStream in the Topic Matrix.* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the "Full Forecast" and "3 day" graphic will be identical Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic Your input will greatly assist others in teaching the "hows" and "whys" of weather. We welcome your feedback on this project. You are free to use the materials in any manner you wish. Interspersed in JetStream are "Learning Lessons" which can be used to enhance the educational experience. The information contained in JetStream is arranged by subject, beginning with global and large-scale weather patterns followed by lessons on air masses, wind patterns, cloud formations, thunderstorms, lightning, hail, damaging winds, tornados, tropical storms, cyclones, and flooding. Credit: Jeff Schmaltz, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Rapid Response Team, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). High resolution version of this NASA image: select link to enlarge image (~2 mb). As the winds are diverted around the high areas, turbulence is created, and the disturbance in the flow continues downstream in the form of rows of vortices that alternate their direction of rotation. In this case, driving wind rushes past the tall peaks on the rugged Canary Islands.
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